Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

Sara Balestri and Raul Caruso ()

Journal of Development Studies, 2024, vol. 60, issue 10, 1530-1556

Abstract: This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia – both regions being predominantly characterised by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities – spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence.

Date: 2024
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Related works:
Working Paper: Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia (2024)
Working Paper: Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia (2021)
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DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2024.2374072

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