Reaching SDG 7: Shedding a Light on the Causal Effect of Mini-Grids on Rural Electrification

Vincent Nossek and Jean-Claude Berthelemy

Journal of Development Studies, 2026, vol. 62, issue 1, 1-26

Abstract: Mini-grids are increasingly becoming a popular solution to electrify rural and remote locations to reach SDG 7. However, the impact of such solutions has been sparsely studied, in particular in Africa. Our study examines the impact of 144 mini-grids deployed in Burkina Faso and Madagascar launched between 2015 and 2020. We mobilize geo-spatial and remote sensing data to perform a quasi-experimental study. We utilize matching and a difference-in-differences method with panel data to estimate the impact of mini-grids on the Nighttime Light (NTL), which is considered a good proxy for electrification. Our results show that mini-grids have a causal and increasing positive impact on the NTL which is increasingly positive over the first three years after installation. We then study the heterogeneity of results among different countries and project characteristics, such as production capacity and technical solutions employed, including renewable technologies and grid connectivity. Overall mini-grids seem to be viable solutions to improve electricity access in a rural context, in particular solutions based on solar energy.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2025.2510636

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