The Reinhart-Rogoff controversy as an instance of the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon

Mariusz Maziarz

Journal of Economic Methodology, 2017, vol. 24, issue 3, 213-225

Abstract: The article proposes a new approach to the Reinhart–Rogoff affair. In contrast to the two explanations of the controversy put forward in existing literature, I argue that Growth in a Time of Debt and its criticism published by Herndon, Ash and Pollin (Does high public debt constantly stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff) exemplify the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon (emerging recalcitrant result, ERR). Three arguments support this hypothesis. First, the infamous spreadsheet error did not cause the findings to differ. On the contrary, the results differed mostly due to employing alternative averaging schemes. Second, the cliometric techniques employed by both research teams are justified to a similar degree. Third, the pattern in the cliometric literature focused on the 90%-threshold hypothesis suggests that the Reinhart–Rogoff controversy exemplifies an ERR phenomenon caused by submission/publication bias.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2017.1302598

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