Alternative consequences and asymmetry of results: their importance for policy decision making

Leonardo Ivarola

Journal of Economic Methodology, 2019, vol. 26, issue 2, 147-162

Abstract: In policy implementation, the knowledge that leads to its success is as necessary as the knowledge of its possible alternative paths. Cartwright and Hardie’s approach [(2012). Evidence-Based policy. A practical guide to doing it better. Oxford University Press.] accounts for the first but ignores the chance that a policy may ‘deviate’ from the desired outcome. The problem lies in whether these deviations lead to substantially negative consequences. The present paper offers a conceptual account meant to complement Cartwright and Hardie’s approach. It is argued that a policy maker’s decision should not be based exclusively on a policy’s chances of success, but also on the consequences of potential alternative results, that is, on what there is to gain or to lose if a policy succeeds or fails.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2018.1479765

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