Understanding farmers' influence on land-use change using a participatory Bayesian network approach in a pre-Alpine region in Switzerland

Enrico Celio and Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2016, vol. 59, issue 11, 2079-2101

Abstract: Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1120713

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