The Great Recession or progressive energy policies? Explaining the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts

Hal T. Nelson, David von Hippel, Tom Peterson and Roman Garagulagian

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2016, vol. 59, issue 3, 480-500

Abstract: This paper evaluates the causes of the 23% decline in 2030 US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts between 2007 and 2011. Dynamic regression modeling predicts that the Great Recession contributed to about 67% of the 2008--2009 emissions decline, but then fell to about an 18% share for the 2030 emissions forecast. An analysis of electricity generation forecasts show that switching from coal to gas contributed only 6% to the total 2030 decline. In contrast, regulatory impact assessments and policy analysis showed that state and federal policies were responsible for 46% of the 2030 decline in emissions.

Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:59:y:2016:i:3:p:480-500

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DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1017042

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