Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment

Fatemeh Khosravi and Urmila Jha-Thakur

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2019, vol. 62, issue 6, 979-1000

Abstract: Planning for the future is uncertain, and scenario analysis is a method of coping with the uncertainties of future plans. This paper addresses how to deal with future uncertainties by using scenario analysis as a possible approach for conducting a strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Although scenario-based approaches have been linked to strategic planning and SEA, this paper for the first time proposes how a combined approach may be implemented using specific tools and methodologies and, further on, it also implements the first three stages of the six stages proposed for the ‘scenario-based strategic planning’ approach. This work is an attempt to standardize SEA and scenario analysis as a combined approach. The three stages are tested within the Tourism Development Plan of the Iranian province of Gilan, which has been selected as a case study.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2018.1456913

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