Early warning simulation of urban ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: a case study of Chongqing, Wuhan, and Shanghai

Xiaoling Ke, Amal Mougharbel, Haixiang Guo, Deyun Wang, Yan Wang and Feng Min

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2020, vol. 63, issue 10, 1811-1833

Abstract: Ecological security early warning (ESEW) research can solve the dilemma of ‘treatment after pollution’ and reduce the cost of ecological governance. However, most studies have focused on evaluating ecological security (ES) in the current rather than predicting its development trend. This paper explores the methodology of ESEW and constructs a set of urban ESEW systems. Firstly, an index system of urban ESEW is established based on the PSR model. Secondly, the system dynamics method is introduced, and the integrated index method is combined to construct an ESEW model. Three typical Chinese cities (Chongqing, Wuhan and Shanghai) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are taken as samples for empirical research. The results show that the ES situation in Shanghai is the best, and the error rate is within 10%, indicating that the proposed system has a high prediction accuracy. It can be used across the world not only to evaluate the current ES situation, but also to predict its future trend.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2019.1689931

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