ARIMA models as an alternative to predict the diffusion of the ISO 14001 standard in Europe

Jean Marcel Sousa Lira, Eduardo Gomes Salgado and Luiz Alberto Beijo

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2020, vol. 63, issue 2, 275-286

Abstract: The diffusion of ISO 14001 has been modelling with logistic models to predict certifications. However, some alternatives for this model have been tested. Thus, this work tested an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model as an alternative to predict ISO 14001 certification in Europe. For this, the time series were constructed from the diffusion of the countries and the models were tested for the foremost fit and accuracy. Therefore, ARIMA models have adapted to the different states of diffusion of the countries in Europe, highlighting the countries with the highest number of certifications, such as Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom. In addition, the model was able to adjust to the countries that presented decertification, such as Spain and Romania. The ARIMA model also showed an accuracy of 90% for some countries and can be used as an alternative to modelling diffusion data for ISO 14001 standards.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2019.1577721

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