Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992

David Giles

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2005, vol. 14, issue 1, 93-114

Abstract: Using historical time-series data, we test for convergence and common trends in real per capita output for New Zealand and her four major trading partners. Both bivariate and multivariate time-series methods are used, and we also implement the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm as a new method for detecting convergence. The results of our time-series analysis accord with earlier studies - we find limited evidence of (only bivariate) convergence, but ample evidence of a small number of common trends. In contrast, our fuzzy clustering analysis reveals very strong evidence of a particular form of output convergence when the five trading countries are considered as a group.

Keywords: Economic growth; international trade; convergence; common trends; cointegration; fuzzy sets; pattern recognition; fuzzy c-means algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1080/0963819042000333261

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The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development is currently edited by Pasquale Sgro, David E.A. Giles and Charles van Marrewijk

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