Terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility in developing countries: panel smooth transition regression models

Nabil Alimi and Nabil Aflouk

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2017, vol. 26, issue 5, 534-551

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility for a panel of 58 developing countries from 1980 to 2015. Using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, we prove first, that terms-of-trade volatility have a statistically significant and positive impact on the volatility of output growth, although the magnitude of this effect is not the same by the report to the threshold that has been identified. Second, the terms-of-trade volatility affect macroeconomic fluctuation differently depending on whether the country is a net exporter of the commodity, fuel or manufactured goods.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2016.1278029

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