Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: a general equilibrium comment

Carlos Yepez

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2018, vol. 27, issue 6, 655-666

Abstract: I examine distinct cyclical properties of labor markets in emerging economies compared to developed ones from a general equilibrium perspective. The evidence in emerging economies shows that (1) wages are more volatile than income, while (2) employment is less volatile and (3) less pro-cyclical than in developed economies. I use a standard open-economy model to study the implications of wealth effects on labor market dynamics in both emerging and developed economies simultaneously. In contrast to the (partial equilibrium) results of the small open economy (SOE) model, I show that in general equilibrium, strong wealth effects on labor supply in emerging economies are necessary to rationalize the evidence. The model is also consistent with empirical regularities of exchange rate fluctuations, namely (1) excess volatility of real exchange rates, and (2) the negative co-movement between the real exchange rate and relative consumption.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2017.1416661

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