Asymmetric impact of multifarious exchange rate shocks on stock prices: Fresh insights from multiple thresholds nonlinear autoregressive distributed-lag approach

Joseph Chukwudi Odionye, Emmanuel Nwosu, Augustine C. Odo, Ugochukwu Sebastine Ugwuegbe and Chiwuike N. Uba

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2024, vol. 33, issue 5, 868-902

Abstract: Exchange rate extreme shocks affect stock prices differently, depending on the sign and the magnitude of changes. This study, therefore, examines the asymmetric impact of multifarious exchange rate shocks on stock prices in sub-Saharan Africa between 1 March 2013 and 14 January 2023, using the novel, multiple thresholds nonlinear autoregressive distributed-lag (MTNARDL) model. This model estimates the effects of extremely small and extremely large positive and negative shocks in exchange rate on stock prices. The study partitioned the sample into pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era. The study’s outcome indicates: first, exchange rate shocks below 25th percentile affect stock prices positively but above the 25th percentile and below the upper quantiles (75th percentile) the effects is mixed; second, at the upper quantiles (75th percentile), both exchange rate depreciation and appreciation adversely affect the value of stocks; third, the link between the series is highly sensitive to global shocks; fourth, causality result upholds the flow-oriented model in four out of the six countries. The policy implications are: (i) the responses of stock prices to exchange rates changes are sensitive to the sign and size of the shock, as well as sensitive to global shocks. Consequently, specific policy recommendations have been suggested.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2023.2223320

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