Does trade openness affect migrants' marriage? Evidence from China

Kaihao Liu, Xuefang Wang and Tingru Zhang

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2025, vol. 34, issue 3, 640-673

Abstract: Based on the database of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2018, this paper explores the impact of trade openness on migrants’ marriage, and reveals that trade openness increases migrants’ divorce rate significantly. The potential mechanism analysis finds that trade openness affects migrants’ divorce rate through the channel of their marriage value. Besides, the heterogeneity test indicates that the impacts of trade openness on migrants’ marriage are heterogeneous across different regions, social and cultural environments, gender groups, and migration circles. Furthermore, the moderating effect analysis reveals that Confucian culture can weaken the impact of trade openness on migrants’ divorce rate, which has a negative moderating effect on the relation between trade openness and migrants’ divorce rate. Finally, this paper provides supporting evidence for the fact that trade openness does affect migrants’ marriage and thus offers a possible explanation for the continuously increasing divorce rate in China from the perspective of trade openness.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2024.2325521

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