Exchange rate movements and trade balance in developing economies: Evidence of symmetry and country-specific asymmetries

Muhammad Muzammil, Mahnaz Muhammad Ali, Tanveer Bagh and Muhammad Asif Khan

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2025, vol. 34, issue 6, 1444-1482

Abstract: The impact of exchange rate (ER) movements on the trade balance has been extensively debated in the literature, with conflicting views on the nature and magnitude of this effect. This paper investigates the relationship between ER movements and trade balance in developing economies, with a specific focus on bilateral analysis involving Pakistan. Employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, our results reveal a symmetric relationship between positive and negative ER changes and the trade balance, showing significant long-term and short-term effects across the panel of developing economies. However, country-specific asymmetries are observed, especially in the cases of India and China, and are more pronounced in each bilateral analysis, whether in the short run or long run. The study findings highlight the critical importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate policy, which can provide policymakers with precise insights into the money market and the broader economy while preventing high volatility and continuous depreciation of domestic currencies. Such measures can mitigate the long-term adverse effects of ER movements on trade agreements. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers and investors in developing economies, aiding them in making informed decisions about exchange rate policies.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2024.2389871

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