The impact of information and communication technologies on export diversification: Evidence from developing countries

Gavkhar Sultanova and Hanan Naser

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2026, vol. 35, issue 1, 128-162

Abstract: As economies increasingly rely on digitalization, information and communication technologies (ICT) have become critical in shaping global economic transformations. This study explores the impact of ICT on export concentration and diversification in emerging markets and developing countries. Using a panel data set of 110 countries from 2000 to 2019, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator has been employed to assess the short- and long-term effects of ICT on these economies. To summarize information on various ICT channels, an ICT index has been constructed through principal component analysis (PCA). Additionally, the study examines the combined influence of ICT and human capital on export concentration. Findings indicate that ICT development significantly accelerates export diversification in developing countries, aligning their export structures with global standards. The interaction between ICT and human capital positively impacts export concentration, suggesting that higher levels of human capital enhance ICT's effects. Overall, ICT not only boosts human capital but also equips developing countries with the skills needed to enter new markets, develop high-value products, and compete globally. Consequently, governments in developing countries should prioritize investments in ICT infrastructure to lower trade costs, diversify exports, and promote sustainable economic growth.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2024.2419406

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