Unveiling the impact of geopolitical conflict on digital trade: An empirical study based on the Russia–Ukraine war and China's cross-border e-commerce

Shuzhong Ma, Yanchen Li, Zengxi Hu and Gangjian Pan

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2026, vol. 35, issue 3, 786-820

Abstract: The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War generated significant global economic disruptions, with unforeseen impacts across multiple sectors. Existing research, however, lacks substantive investigation into the conflict's effects on digital trade. This study bridges this gap through a rigorous quantitative analysis, primarily focusing on China's cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) exports to non-war European regions. Leveraging data from a representative CBEC logistics company in China and a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) design, this research reveals a significant downturn in China's CBEC exports to European countries after the Russia-Ukraine War outbroke. Beyond quantifying this impact, we identify key transmission mechanisms: rising living costs in conflict-adjacent regions and refugee displacement patterns that collectively suppressed e-commerce activity. Our expanded analysis further reveals country-level and product-level heterogeneity. These findings provide nuanced perspectives on geopolitical conflicts’ interplay with international trade dynamics – particularly digital commerce – offering valuable implications for researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2025.2585013

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