Adaptive Modeling Procedure Selection by Data Perturbation

Yongli Zhang and Xiaotong Shen

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2015, vol. 33, issue 4, 541-551

Abstract: Many procedures have been developed to deal with the high-dimensional problem that is emerging in various business and economics areas. To evaluate and compare these procedures, modeling uncertainty caused by model selection and parameter estimation has to be assessed and integrated into a modeling process. To do this, a data perturbation method estimates the modeling uncertainty inherited in a selection process by perturbing the data. Critical to data perturbation is the size of perturbation, as the perturbed data should resemble the original dataset. To account for the modeling uncertainty, we derive the optimal size of perturbation, which adapts to the data, the model space, and other relevant factors in the context of linear regression. On this basis, we develop an adaptive data-perturbation method that, unlike its nonadaptive counterpart, performs well in different situations. This leads to a data-adaptive model selection method. Both theoretical and numerical analysis suggest that the data-adaptive model selection method adapts to distinct situations in that it yields consistent model selection and optimal prediction, without knowing which situation exists a priori. The proposed method is applied to real data from the commodity market and outperforms its competitors in terms of price forecasting accuracy.

Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2014.965307 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:33:y:2015:i:4:p:541-551

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/UBES20

DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.965307

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is currently edited by Eric Sampson, Rong Chen and Shakeeb Khan

More articles in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().