Identifying Demand Shocks From Production Data

Carlos Santos

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2020, vol. 38, issue 1, 93-106

Abstract: Standard productivity estimates contain a mixture of cost efficiency and demand conditions. I propose a method to identify the distribution of the demand shock using production data. Identification does not depend on functional form restrictions. It is also robust to dynamic demand considerations and flexible labor. In the parametric case, the ratio of intermediate inputs to the wage bill (input ratio) contains information about the magnitude of the demand shock. The method is tested using data from Spain that contains information on prices and demand conditions. Finally, we generate Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the method’s performance and sensitivity. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2018.1458622

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