Changepoint Detection in Heteroscedastic Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models

Lajos Horvath and Lorenzo Trapani

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2023, vol. 41, issue 4, 1300-1314

Abstract: We propose a family of CUSUM-based statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in the deterministic part of the autoregressive parameter in a Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) sequence. Our tests can be applied irrespective of whether the sequence is stationary or not, and no prior knowledge of stationarity or lack thereof is required. Similarly, our tests can be applied even when the error term and the stochastic part of the autoregressive coefficient are non iid, covering the cases of conditional volatility and shifts in the variance, again without requiring any prior knowledge as to the presence or type thereof. In order to ensure the ability to detect breaks at sample endpoints, we propose weighted CUSUM statistics, deriving the asymptotics for virtually all possible weighing schemes, including the standardized CUSUM process (for which we derive a Darling-Erdős theorem) and even heavier weights (so-called Rényi statistics). Simulations show that our procedures work very well in finite samples. We complement our theory with an application to several financial time series.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2022.2120485 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:41:y:2023:i:4:p:1300-1314

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/UBES20

DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2120485

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is currently edited by Eric Sampson, Rong Chen and Shakeeb Khan

More articles in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().