Variational Inference for Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

Mauro Bernardi, Daniele Bianchi and Nicolas Bianco

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2024, vol. 42, issue 3, 1066-1082

Abstract: We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural representation of the parameter space for posterior inference. Instead, we elicit hierarchical shrinkage priors directly on the matrix of regression coefficients so that (a) the prior structure maps into posterior inference on the reduced-form transition matrix and (b) posterior estimates are more robust to variables permutation. An extensive simulation study provides evidence that our approach compares favorably against existing linear and nonlinear Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes methods. We investigate the statistical and economic value of the forecasts from our variational inference approach for a mean-variance investor allocating her wealth to different industry portfolios. The results show that more accurate estimates translate into substantial out-of-sample gains across hierarchical shrinkage priors and model dimensions.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2023.2290716 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:42:y:2024:i:3:p:1066-1082

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/UBES20

DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2290716

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is currently edited by Eric Sampson, Rong Chen and Shakeeb Khan

More articles in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().