Multiperiod Dynamic Portfolio Choice: When High Dimensionality Meets Return Predictability

Wenfeng He, Xiaoling Mei, Wei Zhong and Huanjun Zhu

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2025, vol. 43, issue 2, 351-364

Abstract: Multiperiod portfolio choice is the central problem in active asset management. Multiperiod dynamic portfolios are notoriously difficult to solve, especially when there are hundreds of tradable assets as well as a large number of state variables. In this article, we develop a novel two-step methodology to solve the multiperiod dynamic portfolio choice problem with high dimensional assets in the presence of return predictability conditional on a large number of state predictors. Specifically, in the first step, we propose the new Risk-Premium Projected-PCA (RP-PPCA) method to reduce the dimension of tradable assets. This method achieves Dimension Reduction (DR) by estimating latent factors with explanatory power in both time series variation and expected return in high-dimension-low-sample-size data. In the second step, we use dynamic programming to solve the multiperiod portfolio choice problem, and in each recursive step, we adopt an Adjusted semiparametric Model Averaging (AMA) method to avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with a large set of state variables while remaining computationally efficient. Thus, we name this two-step approach DRAMA, which stands for a combination of a new dimension reduction method and an adjusted semiparametric model averaging method. Analytically, we show that the portfolios constructed by the DRAMA are approximately optimal under mild assumptions. Moreover, our numerical results based on empirical data from US stock markets show that the proposed portfolios have excellent out-of-sample performances.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2024.2374971 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:43:y:2025:i:2:p:351-364

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/UBES20

DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2024.2374971

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is currently edited by Eric Sampson, Rong Chen and Shakeeb Khan

More articles in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().