Probability of Causation with Sample Selection: A Reanalysis of the Impacts of Jóvenes en Acción on Formality

Vitor Possebom and Flavio Riva

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2025, vol. 43, issue 2, 391-400

Abstract: This article identifies the probability of causation when there is sample selection. We show that the probability of causation is partially identified for individuals who are always observed regardless of treatment status and derive sharp bounds under three increasingly restrictive sets of assumptions. The first set imposes an exogenous treatment and a monotone sample selection mechanism. To tighten these bounds, the second set also imposes the monotone treatment response assumption, while the third set additionally imposes a stochastic dominance assumption. Finally, we use experimental data from the Colombian job training program Jóvenes en Acción to empirically illustrate our approach’s usefulness. We find that, among always-employed women, at least 10.2% and at most 13.4% transitioned to the formal labor market because of the program. However, our 90%-confidence region does not reject the null hypothesis that the lower bound is equal to zero.

Date: 2025
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Working Paper: Probability of Causation with Sample Selection: A Reanalysis of the Impacts of J\'ovenes en Acci\'on on Formality (2024)
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DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2024.2388639

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