The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market

Qiwei Chen, Ying Jiang and Yuan Li

Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 2012, vol. 10, issue 1, 89-108

Abstract: Using the most comprehensive weekly dataset of ‘A’ shares listed on the Chinese stock market, this paper examines short-term contrarian strategies under different market states from 1995--2010. We find statistically significant profits from contrarian strategies, especially during the period after 2007, when China (along with other countries) experienced an economic downturn following the worldwide financial crisis. Our empirical evidence suggests that: (1) no significant profit is generated from either momentum or contrarian strategies in the intermediate horizon; (2) after microstructure effects are adjusted for, contrarian strategies with only four to eight weeks holding periods based on the stocks’ previous four to eight week's performance generate statistically significant profits of around 0.2% per week; (3) the contrarian strategy following a ‘down’ market generates higher profit than those following an ‘up’ market, suggesting that a contrarian strategy could be used as a shelter when the market is in decline. The profits following a ‘down’ market are robust after risk adjustment.

Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14765284.2012.638473 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:10:y:2012:i:1:p:89-108

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RCEA20

DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2012.638473

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies is currently edited by Professor Xiaming Liu

More articles in Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().