Speculative housing supply land and housing, markets: a comparison

Andrew Golland and Peter Boelhouwer

Journal of Property Research, 2002, vol. 19, issue 3, 231-251

Abstract: Speculative development is significant as a way of providing new owner occupied housing in Europe. Yet because this sector of supply is developed under very different policy conditions, the relationships between new build output, housing markets and the wider economy can vary considerably. Previous research, which has sought to understand the determinants of speculative housing development, has largely failed to recognize the contribution that can result from a comparative European study. In this paper, the UK is compared with the Netherlands, where speculative housing sectors operate under different land and planning systems. Supply or 'cost' based theoretical frameworks are contrasted with quantity 'signal' approaches in an investigation of the relationship between macroeconomy, existing housing, and new build market. It is shown, via an analysis of the period 1975-1997, that both UK and Dutch speculative housing sectors respond to a significant extent to changes in housing market indicators such as the level of turnover and house prices; however, Dutch speculative housing output has been more responsive to changes in the wider economy. This is explained not only in terms of the system of municipal land supply, but also in terms of a tenure neutral new build housing policy. It is argued that although there will be some convergence with respect to the long run land-house price relationship, development industries will continue to operate very differently, particularly in dealing with public sector bodies.

Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1080/09599910210151332

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