A Message from the Oracle: the Land Use Impact of a Major In‐town Shopping Centre on Local Retailing

Neil Crosby, Cathy Hughes, Colin Lizieri and Melanie Oughton

Journal of Property Research, 2005, vol. 22, issue 2-3, 245-265

Abstract: Planning policy aimed at preserving the viability of UK town centres halted the wave of out‐of‐town shopping centres -- Schiller's ‘third wave’ of decentralization. Subsequently, a number of major in‐town shopping centres were developed in the UK. The first of these was the Oracle Centre in Reading. This study examines the impact of the Oracle on retail activity in the town centre using land use data. The Oracle acted as a catalyst for change, accelerating trends already observed in the centre, shifting the prime pitch, weakening peripheral areas and increasing turnover rates and vacancy. However, many of the initial short‐term property market impacts on rent and vacancy appear to have dissipated over the longer‐term, leaving longer lasting land use changes in periphery areas. The added attraction of the town centre appears to have offset many of the trade diversion impacts. However, some adverse effects may have been masked by strong consumer spending and a vibrant local economy during the study period.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1080/09599910500453848

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