A Building Cycle Model for an Imperfect World

Richard Barras

Journal of Property Research, 2005, vol. 22, issue 2-3, 63-96

Abstract: A model of the building cycle is presented, expressed in terms of endogenous fluctuations in development activity, vacancy and rents around an equilibrium growth path. The dynamic behaviour of the model is determined by lags in three adjustment processes: the occupier response to changes in rents, the development response to demand changes mediated through a rent adjustment process, and the construction delay between starts and completions. The frequency and severity of the cycle depend upon the values of five key parameters including the construction lag and the transmission coefficient linking vacancy to development starts. The model has been fitted to data for the City of London office market, yielding estimates for key parameters that are consistent with its observed cyclical behaviour.

Date: 2005
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09599910500453905 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:22:y:2005:i:2-3:p:63-96

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RJPR20

DOI: 10.1080/09599910500453905

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Property Research is currently edited by Bryan MacGregor

More articles in Journal of Property Research from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().