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Real estate sentiment as information for REIT bond pricing

Julia Freybote

Journal of Property Research, 2016, vol. 33, issue 1, 18-36

Abstract: For corporate bond investors, credit ratings have been found to be informationally insufficient due to their limited timeliness and accuracy. This paper investigates the information content of forward-looking commercial real estate investor sentiment for pricing decisions of US REIT bond investors. Using an unbalanced panel data-set for the post-crisis period (2010--2013) and Prais--Winsten regression correcting for contemporaneous and serial correlation, sentiment is found to have a negative effect on REIT bond yields irrespective of S&P index inclusion or credit rating. The effect of sentiment, however, is larger for REITs that are not included in S&P indices than for S&P REITs. Explanations for this finding include institutional investor and REIT characteristics.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2016.1146791

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