Climate transition risk in New Zealand equities

Hamish Kennett, Ivan Diaz-Rainey, Pallab Kumar Biswas and Duminda Kuruppuarachchi

Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 868-892

Abstract: We examine climate transition risk in New Zealand (NZ) equities given that NZ’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are dominated by agricultural emissions and that carbon pricing has been in place since 2008. We find disclosure has grown rapidly from 2010 and that disclosure is driven by, inter alia, size and sector membership (Energy, Manufacturing and Primary Industries). However, by 2018, only around half of NZX50 companies regularly disclose emissions, though this should increase steadily as NZ will adopt mandatory disclosures from 2023 onwards on a ‘report or explain basis’. In terms of ‘hypothetical carbon liabilities’, Genesis Energy and Air New Zealand are most exposed for Scope 1 and 2 emissions, but when upstream scope 3 GHG emissions are added, Fonterra (multinational dairy firm) is most at-risk. An asset pricing analysis shows that only volatility and extreme price movements in carbon price returns are priced. Overall, the results suggest that despite there being material climate transition risks for NZX50 equities, limited disclosure and low carbon prices mean that these risks are not likely to be fully priced in stock values.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/20430795.2021.1904774

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