Final outcome probabilities for SIR epidemic model

Hamid El Maroufy, Driss Kiouach and Taib Ziad

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2016, vol. 45, issue 8, 2426-2437

Abstract: We consider an SIR stochastic epidemic model in which new infections occur at rate f(x, y), where x and y are, respectively, the number of susceptibles and infectives at the time of infection and f is a positive sequence of real functions. A simple explicit formula for the final size distribution is obtained. Some efficient recursive methods are proved for the exact calculation of this distribution. In addition, we give a Gaussian approximation for the final distribution using a diffusion process approximation.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2014.881494

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