Order statistics and the length of the best-n-of-(2n − 1) competition

T. Lengyel

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2017, vol. 46, issue 1, 406-414

Abstract: The best-4-of-7 series is a popular playoff format to decide the champion in most North American professional sports. World Series (best-4-of-7) type competitions give rise to interesting probabilistic and statistical questions. We determine the expected length of this type of series by relating it to a problem involving order statistics. We also calculate the variance of the length and provide a simple formula for series of fair games. The method can be extended to derive higher order moments. This novel approach leads to new results that can be formulated in closed forms in terms of the distribution function of various binomial distributions. The emphasis is on establishing the connection to order statistics and obtaining closed forms. The relation to the negative binomial distribution as well as to the sooner waiting time problem in sequential testing is also discussed. We also consider the case when ties are allowed in the single games.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2014.995822

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