Clustering and expected seat-share for district maps

Kristopher Tapp

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2021, vol. 51, issue 22, 7751-7766

Abstract: In the context of modern sampling methods for redistricting, we define a natural measurement of the clustering of a political party, and we study how clustering affects the expected election outcome. We first prove general results and then apply this framework to understand how the political geography in Pennsylvania affects the expected outcome of congressional elections.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2021.1879862

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