Moderating probability distributions for unrepresented uncertainty: Application to sentiment analysis via deep learning

David R. Bickel

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2022, vol. 51, issue 19, 6559-6572

Abstract: The probability distributions that statistical methods use to represent uncertainty fail to capture all of the uncertainty that may be relevant to decision making. A simple way to adjust probability distributions for the uncertainty not represented in their models is to average the distributions with a uniform distribution or another distribution of maximum uncertainty. A decision-theoretic framework leads to averaging the distributions by taking the means of the logit transforms of the probabilities. That method does not prevent convergence to the truth, as does taking the means of the probabilities themselves. The mean-logit approach to moderating distributions is applied to natural language processing performed by a deep neural network.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2020.1863988

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