A new fractional modified exponential curve model and its applications

Kai Zuo and Hang Zuo

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 2023, vol. 52, issue 20, 7206-7222

Abstract: To improve the fitting and prediction accuracy of the existing modified exponential curve model, the fractional order accumulation and the fractional order difference are introduced into the process of the modified exponential curve modeling. First, the original data are processed by fractional order accumulation or fractional order difference, and then the corresponding modified exponential curve model is established. The optimal fractional order is determined by the particle swarm optimization algorithm under certain error criteria. Finally, the new model is applied to the rural resident tourism of China and is compared with the traditional exponential curve model and the modified exponential curve model. From the calculation results, it can be seen that the proper data processing can improve the accuracy of the model.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2022.2042026

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