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Fiscal rules and debt dynamics in India

Advait Moharir

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 1, 23-46

Abstract: Using an accounting framework, I examine the evolution of national and sub-national public debt in India from 1981 to 2017, with reference to the FRBM Review Committee Report, which stipulates the debt targets at 60% and 20%, respectively. I find that a larger share of debt movement is explained by changes in interest rate, growth and inflation, than by accumulation of new debt, for both national and sub-national debt. Simulations show that a strict perusal of the debt targets will force the government to run surpluses, while relaxing the targets generates fiscal space up to 4% of the GDP.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2020.1796733

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