The different role of governance in the fiscal deficit – inflation between developed and developing countries

Thuy Tien Ho, Van Bon Nguyen and Thi Bao Ngoc Nguyen

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 2023, vol. 16, issue 3, 377-388

Abstract: Fiscal deficits, the result of the government’s fiscal policy in the direction of promoting economic growth and development, can be inflationary and cause social instability. Does the fiscal deficit – inflation relationship depend on the governance environment? To answer this question, the study uses the two-step difference GMM Arellano-Bond estimator to investigate the effects of fiscal deficit, governance, and their interaction on inflation for a sample of 34 developed countries with good governance environment and a sample of 86 developing countries with bad one from 2002 to 2019. The robustness of estimates is tested by the one-step difference GMM Arellano-Bond estimator. The estimated results show the fiscal deficit – inflation relationship strongly depends on the governance environment. Indeed, fiscal deficit and governance are deflationary in developed countries but inflationary in developing ones. In addition, public debt stimulates inflation in both two groups of countries. These findings suggest some important policy implications for governments in developing countries in reforming and improving the governance environment.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2021.1973787

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