Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

Jinxian Weng, Dong Yang and Gang Du

Maritime Policy & Management, 2018, vol. 45, issue 8, 963-978

Abstract: This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2018.1475760

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