Leverage rule-based Bayesian network on assessing straits/canals resilience performance on a risk coupling analysis perspective

Hanwen Fan, Jing Lyu, Shuang Wang and Xiaoxing Gong

Maritime Policy & Management, 2025, vol. 52, issue 2, 250-268

Abstract: The maritime transportation system is comprised of several crucial nodes, including straits and canals, which are becoming increasingly susceptible to external emergencies and disturbances. The intricate interactive relationships and non-linear influences among the risk factors pose significant challenges in assessing the resilience performance of these straits and canals. To address these challenges, a four-stage resilience assessment framework was developed to analyze the resilience performance of the straits and canals under uncertain risk coupling scenarios. The framework leverages the advantages of fuzzy logic and Bayesian network, enabling the construction of conditional probability tables and reducing expert judgement inconsistencies. The findings indicate that the Strait of Malacca exhibits higher resilience performance under multi-dimensional risk coupling scenarios. This framework has significant potential in providing valuable insights for risk and resilience management and can be extended to similar industries.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2024.2306952

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