A fuzzy evidential reasoning-based approach for assessing the navigation obstruction risk of shipwrecks in the Yangtze river

Xiaohe Dong, Congcong Zhao, Bing Wu and C. Guedes Soares

Maritime Policy & Management, 2025, vol. 52, issue 6, 912-929

Abstract: This paper aims to evaluate the navigation obstruction risk represented by shipwrecks in shallow waters based on a fuzzy evidential reasoning approach. The purpose of this approach is to establish a hierarchical decision-making framework that considers ship conditions, traffic environment, distance from sensitive areas, and natural environment; to derive the belief rule base using the IF-THEN rule with a belief structure; and to obtain the crisp values of navigation obstruction risk of shipwrecks via evidential reasoning. This approach is applied to the navigation obstruction risk assessment of 10 historical shipwrecks in the Yangtze River, and the evaluation results are consistent with historical data. Consequently, this approach can be used for assisting in shipwreck salvage decision-making in navigable waters.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2024.2410845

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