REGRESSION MODELLING OF MORTALITY SURFACES AND THE DECELERATION OF MORTALITY

Christopher Heathcote and Tim Higgins ()

Mathematical Population Studies, 2004, vol. 11, issue 2, 73-91

Abstract: A mortality surface is a measure of mortality indexed by year and age. A central limit theorem for aggregate data is established for the mortality surface defined by the logistic transform of the year and age-specific probability of death and this is used to postulate and estimate a regression model. Extra variance may be the result of heterogeneity within cohorts, and it is shown how the model based on aggregate data could be decomposed to accommodate sub-cohorts by using proportional odds. In the absence of disaggregated data, excess variance is modelled as a function of age and year and estimation is done by maximum likelihood. The parametric surface so estimated is used to examine deceleration of mortality at old ages and trends in deceleration are discussed with reference to selection and heterogeneity. The results are applied to mortality data from the Netherlands for 1890-1991, ages 50-90.

Keywords: aging; deceleration; heterogeneity; mortality; mortality surface; regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490478229 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:73-91

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GMPS20

DOI: 10.1080/08898480490478229

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematical Population Studies is currently edited by Prof. Noel Bonneuil, Annick Lesne, Tomasz Zadlo, Malay Ghosh and Ezio Venturino

More articles in Mathematical Population Studies from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().