The Momentum of Real Population Under Linear Fertility Transition

Nan Li

Mathematical Population Studies, 2006, vol. 13, issue 2, 105-116

Abstract: Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a demographic transition to its initial size before the transition. For stable population and instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Keyfitz found a simple formula for the momentum. Although Keyfitz's formula has been extended to cover gradual demographic transitions, the stable initial population, however, is still an obstacle to approaching reality. Using the solution of the Lotka equation with time-varying vital rates and extending it to negative values of time, exact and accurate formulae for the momentum of any initial population that undergoes a linear fertility transition are expressed. Examples using the data from the United Nations indicate that the accurate formula works well for the age structures that are far from stable such as the more and less developed regions, as well as that close to stable such as the least developed region.

Keywords: momentum; real population; linear fertility transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600620035 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:105-116

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GMPS20

DOI: 10.1080/08898480600620035

Access Statistics for this article

Mathematical Population Studies is currently edited by Prof. Noel Bonneuil, Annick Lesne, Tomasz Zadlo, Malay Ghosh and Ezio Venturino

More articles in Mathematical Population Studies from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().