Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the Covid-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy

Mohamed El Fatini, Mohamed El Khalifi, Richard Gerlach and Roger Pettersson

Mathematical Population Studies, 2021, vol. 28, issue 4, 228-242

Abstract: In a Covid-19 susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model with time-varying rates of transmission, recovery, and death, the parameters are constant in small time intervals. A posteriori parameters result from the Euler-Maruyama approximation for stochastic differential equations and from Bayes’ theorem. Parameter estimates and 10-day predictions are performed based on Moroccan and Italian Covid-19 data. Mean absolute errors and mean square errors indicate that predictions are of good quality.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661

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