Information or normative impacts? Influencing factors and dynamic mechanisms of fertility intentions among first-time married young adults based on the TPB-SIT model

Jian Wangqu, Linlin Chen and Luiz Peres-Neto

Mathematical Population Studies, 2025, vol. 32, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: The data from the Seventh Population Census (7th Population Census) indicate that China is currently confronted with significant demographic challenges, particularly those arising from low fertility rates. Due to the complexity of factors affecting fertility decisions, which are typically characterized under the concept of “perceived behavioral control,” it is challenging to investigate the multifaceted factors that influence fertility decisions. To conduct a broad analysis of the factors that shape fertility decisions among young adults in their first marriage, a TPB-SIT model is constructed from a policy-oriented perspective, which integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the Socioeconomic Influences Theory (SIT). By focusing on targeted policy tools, the effectiveness and specificity of policy-oriented measures were examined quantitatively. The analysis of the TPB-SIT model using CFPS data underscores the regulatory function of policy tools and the significance of traditional values. Based on these findings, targeted suggestions are proposed to effectively enhance fertility rates.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2024.2439270

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