Does one size fit all? An update to the debate on population growth

Jose Caraballo-Cueto

Mathematical Population Studies, 2025, vol. 32, issue 2, 104-122

Abstract: Based on several Arellano–Bond estimations and two-way fixed-effects panel regressions, we find that unsegmented regressions hide heterogeneous associations between population and economic growth, except for the growth in the working-age population that benefits all groups of countries. With regard to population growth components, fertility growth is only beneficial in high-income countries, while it is neutral in others. Net immigration benefits high-income countries, while a reduction in mortality helps low- and middle-income countries. Economic growth in middle-income countries appears to be neutral for all components of population growth, except for mortality. Using propensity score matching estimates, we find that population growth rates between replacement level and 1.79% benefit the GDP per capita of the vast majority of nations.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2025.2533228

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