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On demographic transition, structural change, and economic growth and stagnation

Holger Strulik ()

Mathematical Population Studies, 2000, vol. 8, issue 4, 333-356

Abstract: The paper analyzes an economy with an agrarian and an industrial sector. Demand is determined by Engel's Law. Population growth follows a non-linear income dependent path according to the theory of demographic transition. In case of decreasing returns to scale in the agrarian sector the existence of a stable low-income equilibrium with high population growth can be shown. If this equilibrium is globally unstable, the system evolves towards a steady-state of perpetual economic growth and low population growth. The path of demographic transition coincides with a path of structural change from an economy specialized in agriculture to a fully industrialized economy. The introduction of an income dependent savings rate allows the interpretation of the low-income equilibrium as a limit cycle and, therefore, the explanation of high fluctuations in population growth and per capita income in least developed economies.

Keywords: Demographic transition; Economic growth; Structural change; Limit cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Working Paper: On Demographic Transition, Structural Change, and Economic Growth and Stagnation (1998) Downloads
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Mathematical Population Studies is currently edited by Prof. Noel Bonneuil, Annick Lesne, Tomasz Zadlo, Malay Ghosh and Ezio Venturino

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