Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections

John Creedy and Kathleen Makale

New Zealand Economic Papers, 2014, vol. 48, issue 2, 196-208

Abstract: This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the next 50 years. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of gross domestic product using simulation methods. Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

Date: 2014
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Working Paper: Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections (2013)
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DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2013.874395

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