The value premium and uncertainty: An approach by support vector regression algorithm

Bui Thanh Khoa and Tran Trong Huynh

Cogent Economics & Finance, 2023, vol. 11, issue 1, 2191459

Abstract: Risk premium plays an important role in stock investing. Experiments have shown that value stocks typically have a higher average return than growth stocks; however, this effect persists indefinitely, even disappearing in some stages. Some studies suggested high volatility in the series of returns, broken structures, market volatility, or the impact of financial crises. This study aimed to build the uncertainty index and control it in the regression analysis model to solve the limitations above. The empirical analysis in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) showed that a value premium exists, and value stocks have a higher average return than growth stocks due to the higher overall risk. Furthermore, this study combined the Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm with the risk premium theoretical framework for the forecasting model; consequently, it is the most efficient model.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2023.2191459

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