Risk spillovers among crude oil, gold, and China equity sub-sectors

Zong-feng Zou, Chao Zhang and Xi-yun Sun

Cogent Economics & Finance, 2024, vol. 12, issue 1, 2431536

Abstract: This study investigates the time-varying return spillovers among the gold and oil markets and the Chinese equity subsectors using a network system representation. The results of the statics analysis show that crude oil and the majority of equity sectors are the net transmitters of spillovers in the network, whereas gold is the net receiver of spillovers from the network system. Additionally, negative return spillovers are greater than positive return spillovers. The results of time-varying analysis based on the moving window technique show that the dynamic symmetric and asymmetric return propagation rise during several periods of financial difficulties, suggesting the existence of market contagion. This pattern of market spillover effects is particularly notable during the market stress period marked by the COVID-19 crisis. The analysis of dynamic network linkages uncovers the crude oil market and the banking sector as the biggest risk sources in the network system. Finally, we construct and compare the risk performance of portfolios under four different strategies, showing that gold is an effective hedging tool for risk in China’s stock market.This paper analyzes return spillovers between crude oil, gold, and Chinese equity sectors using the Diebold-Yilmaz framework. Key findings reveal asymmetric spillovers, with negative returns dominating. It highlights gold's role in risk diversification and demonstrates that optimal portfolio strategies can significantly reduce downside risk, especially during financial crises.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2024.2431536

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