Accuracy, unbiasedness, and efficiency of current account growth forecast: Evidence from a large cross section of developed and developing economies

Fazlul Miah and Abdoul Wane

Cogent Economics & Finance, 2018, vol. 6, issue 1, 1535234

Abstract: We use a previously unexploited consensus survey data set to compare accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of Current Account growth forecasts between two panels of 25 developed and 18 developing countries following the methodologies in the existing literature. Forecast errors are bigger for the developing country comparing to the developed country. Developed country forecast errors are unbiased but inefficient. The developing country forecast errors are biased but relatively more efficient. In both the panels, forecast revisions are efficient for the same forecast horizons, but inefficient for the adjacent horizons. Additionally, we find less evidence of forecast smoothing compared to some earlier studies. Forecasters do improve their forecasts as the horizons become shorter although the forecasts fall short of being unbiased and efficient statistically.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/23322039.2018.1535234 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:1535234

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/OAEF20

DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1535234

Access Statistics for this article

Cogent Economics & Finance is currently edited by Steve Cook, Caroline Elliott, David McMillan, Duncan Watson and Xibin Zhang

More articles in Cogent Economics & Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().