Chinese import dominance and structural transformation in Africa

Washingtone Onyango, Socrates Majune and Patricia Naluwooza

Oxford Development Studies, 2025, vol. 53, issue 1, 86-102

Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of China’s import dominance on Africa’s structural transformation, measured through the Shapley decomposition approach. A pooled mean group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model is analyzed using panel data from 1995–2018 for 21 countries. We find that Chinese imports of goods and services, like those from the rest of the world, increase Africa’s structural transformation in the long-run. However, the magnitude of the coefficient for China is larger than that of the rest of the world for both goods and services (total). The Chinese impact on Africa’s structural transformation is mainly through capital goods and other commercial services (such as ICT, financial, and construction), whose coefficients are larger than those of the rest of the world. Imposing barriers on Chinese imports is not a viable option for African countries. Instead, they should pursue policies that enrich the manufacturing sector, including adopting an Africa-wide trade agreement.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13600818.2025.2451988

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